Search for: All records

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) bring concentrated rainfall and flooding to the western United States (US) and are hypothesized to have supported sustained hydroclimatic changes in the past. However, their ephemeral nature makes it challenging to document ARs in climate models and estimate their contribution to hydroclimate changes recorded by time-averaged paleoclimate archives. We present new climate model simulations of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16,000 years before the present), an interval characterized by widespread wetness in the western US, that demonstrate increased AR frequency and winter precipitation sourced from the southeastern North Pacific. These changes are amplified with freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic, indicating that North Atlantic cooling associated with weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key driver of HS1 climate in this region. As recent observations suggest potential weakening of AMOC, our identified connection between North Atlantic climate and northeast Pacific AR activity has implications for future western US hydroclimate.

Very high tropical alpine ice cores provide a distinct paleoclimate record for climate changes in the middle and upper troposphere. However, the climatic interpretation of a key proxy, the stable water oxygen isotopic ratio in ice cores (δ¹⁸O_ice), remains an outstanding problem. Here, combining proxy records with climate models, modern satellite measurements, and radiative-convective equilibrium theory, we show that the tropical δ¹⁸O_iceis an indicator of the temperature of the middle and upper troposphere, with a glacial cooling of −7.35° ± 1.1°C (66% CI). Moreover, it severs as a “Goldilocks-type” indicator of global mean surface temperature change, providing the first estimate of glacial stage cooling that is independent of marine proxies as −5.9° ± 1.2°C. Combined with all estimations available gives the maximum likelihood estimate of glacial cooling as −5.85° ± 0.51°C.

The timing and mechanisms of past hydroclimate change in northeast Mexico are poorly constrained, limiting our ability to evaluate climate model performance. To address this, we present a multiproxy speleothem record of past hydroclimate variability spanning 62.5 to 5.1 ka from Tamaulipas, Mexico. Here we show a strong influence of Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperatures on orbital and millennial scale precipitation changes in the region. Multiple proxies show no clear response to insolation forcing, but strong evidence for dry conditions during Heinrich Stadials. While these trends are consistent with other records from across Mesoamerica and the Caribbean, the relative importance of thermodynamic and dynamic controls in driving this response is debated. An isotope-enabled climate model shows that cool Atlantic SSTs and stronger easterlies drive a strong inter-basin sea surface temperature gradient and a southward shift in moisture convergence, causing drying in this region.

The winter and summer monsoons in Southeast Asia are important but highly variable sources of rainfall. Current understanding of the winter monsoon is limited by conflicting proxy observations, resulting from the decoupling of regional atmospheric circulation patterns and local rainfall dynamics. These signals are difficult to decipher in paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we present a winter monsoon speleothem record from Southeast Asia covering the Holocene and find that winter and summer rainfall changed synchronously, forced by changes in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In contrast, regional atmospheric circulation shows an inverse relation between winter and summer controlled by seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere. We show that disentangling the local and regional signal in paleoclimate reconstructions is crucial in understanding and projecting winter and summer monsoon variability in Southeast Asia.

This dataset contains the atmospheric river catalogues and the associated precipitation and temperature data for the Preindustrial and Last Glacial Maximum CESM2 simulations presented in the GRL manuscript:  Atmospheric river contributions to ice sheet hydro climate at the Last Glacial Maximum. The atmospheric river catalogue files (zipped) are in netcdf format and organized by year. There are 100 years of data for both simulations.  The Preindustrial simulation catalogue begins in model year 41 and ends in model year 140.  The LGM simulation catalogue begins in model year 1 and ends in year 100. Each yearly file has a temporal resolution of 6 hours (1460 time steps each file) and a spatial resolution of 0.9° x 1.25° (the native resolution of the CESM simulation). A variable in the file called "ar_binary_tag" indicates whether an atmospheric river is present at each grid cell and each tilmestep: 1 indicates an atmospheric river is present; 0 indicates an atmospheric river is not present.  The precipitation and temperature files are 100-year annual or 100-year seasonal averages of atmospheric river precipitation/temperature. See the Methods section of the article for more details on the atmospheric river detection algorithm and precipitation/temperature calculations.

Associated article abstract:

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are an important driver of surface mass balance over today’s Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Using paleoclimate simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we find ARs also had a key influence on the extensive ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). ARs provide up to 53% of total precipitation along the margins of the eastern Laurentide ice sheet and up to 22-27% of precipitation along the margins of the Patagonian, western Cordilleran, and western Fennoscandian ice sheets. Despite overall cold conditions at the LGM, surface temperatures during AR events are often above freezing, resulting in more rain than snow along ice sheet margins and conditions that promote surface melt. The results suggest  ARs may have had an important role in ice sheet growth and melt during previous glacial periods and may have accelerated ice sheet retreat following the LGM.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are an important driver of surface mass balance over today's Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Using paleoclimate simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we find ARs also had a key influence on the extensive ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). ARs provide up to 53% of total precipitation along the margins of the eastern Laurentide ice sheet and up to 22%–27% of precipitation along the margins of the Patagonian, western Cordilleran, and western Fennoscandian ice sheets. Despite overall cold conditions at the LGM, surface temperatures during AR events are often above freezing, resulting in more rain than snow along ice sheet margins and conditions that promote surface melt. The results suggest ARs may have had an important role in ice sheet growth and melt during previous glacial periods and may have accelerated ice sheet retreat following the LGM.